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Mosaic Co.
MOSMaterialsGenerated Sep 5, 2026, 01:34 PM UTC
MOS (Mosaic Co.) analytical snapshot. Revenue grew +8.4% YoY to $12.05B. Net margin at 4.49% (contracting ▼). Return on equity 4.47%, ROA 2.21%, ROIC 6.80%. Market cap $8.22B at $25.85 per share. Trailing P/E 15.21, P/S 0.68, P/B 0.72. EV/Operating income ≈ 14.31 (EV $11.76B). Risk: Elevated. Macro: Risk-on · Supportive. Composite analytical score -10 (data confidence 82%). Descriptive analytics from public filings — not investment advice.
Market cap
$8.22B
317.90M shares
Price
$25.85
NYQ
P/E (ttm)
15.21
Revenue (FY)
$12.05B
YoY +8.4%
Net margin
4.49%
▼ 14.25pp
Free cash flow
-$534.6M
-4.44% margin
Risk level
Elevated
Free SEC analysis
— computed from SEC filings, free to readFree previewRegulatory Analyst
Filings & Ownership
Regulatory Analyst
score 20Improving
80% conf
Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 27, 2026. Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Aug 5, 2026. 22 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 27, 2026.
- Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Aug 5, 2026.
- 22 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
- Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
- ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Mosaic Co.; broad institutional reporting.
- Recent filers include TIDE POINT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP, SOUND ENERGY PARTNERS, INC., CRITERIA CAIXA, S.A.U..
- 20 recent 13G passive institutional ownership notices.
Latest 10-K
Feb 27, 2026
Annual report
Latest 10-Q
Aug 5, 2026
8-K (recent)
22
Insider net
—
0B/0S
13F filers
10k+
Activist 13D
0
Recent 13F institutional filers (SEC EDGAR full-text)
| Filer | Form | Filed |
|---|---|---|
| TIDE POINT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LP | 13F-HR | May 15, 2018 |
| SOUND ENERGY PARTNERS, INC. | 13F-HR | Feb 13, 2013 |
| CRITERIA CAIXA, S.A.U. | 13F-HR | Mar 18, 2025 |
| PointState Capital LP | 13F-HR | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Tempus Quo Capital Management, LLC | 13F-HR | Feb 14, 2013 |
Recent 8-K material events
| Date | Form | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
| May 29, 2026 | 8-K | 8-K |
Free previewSEC Filing Analyst
SEC Filing Deep-Analysis
SEC Filing Analyst
score -62Deteriorating
66% conf
5 risk signal(s), 2 positive signal(s) detected from XBRL filing diff analysis. Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- Inventory buildup exceeds sales growth: Inventory grew +32.0% vs revenue +8.4%. Excess inventory may signal weakening demand, potential write-downs, or supply chain overcommitment. Watch gross margin for discounting impact.
- Earnings-cash flow divergence: Net income grew +209.1% while operating cash flow declined -36.5%. This divergence may indicate accrual-based earnings inflation — non-cash gains, aggressive revenue recognition, or working capital absorption. The accrual ratio (NI − OCF) is deteriorating.
- Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +1227.8% YoY (from $47.4M to $-534.6M). With OCF at $824.8M and capex at $1.36B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
- Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" "internal control" appears in 5 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 2 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
- Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.53x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
- Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
- Endogenous analysis: "Material weakness in internal controls" combined with earnings-cash flow divergence is especially concerning — it suggests the reported earnings may not be reliable due to control deficiencies, and the cash flow shortfall may be masking underlying issues.
- 12 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
- 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
- Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls, Restatement of financial statements.
Revenue
$12.05B
+8.4% YoY
Gross profit
$1.90B
+25.8% YoY
Operating income
$821.5M
+32.2% YoY
Net income
$540.7M
+209.1% YoY
Operating cash flow
$824.8M
-36.5% YoY
Capex
$1.36B
+8.6% YoY
Total assets
$24.48B
+6.8% YoY
Long-term debt
$3.83B
+0.4% YoY
Filing quality score
80/100
12 new disclosures
SEC XBRL metric changes (latest annual vs prior)
| Metric | Prior year | Latest year | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.12B | $12.05B | $929.6M | +8.4% |
| Gross profit | $1.51B | $1.90B | $390.0M | +25.8% |
| Operating income | $621.5M | $821.5M | $200.0M | +32.2% |
| Net income | $174.9M | $540.7M | $365.8M | +209.1% |
| Operating cash flow | $1.30B | $824.8M | $-474.4M | -36.5% |
| Capex | $1.25B | $1.36B | $107.6M | +8.6% |
| Total assets | $22.92B | $24.48B | $1.56B | +6.8% |
| Long-term debt | $3.82B | $3.83B | $15.1M | +0.4% |
| Cash & equivalents | $272.8M | $276.6M | $3.8M | +1.4% |
| Stockholders equity | $11.48B | $12.08B | $602.5M | +5.2% |
| Inventory | $2.55B | $3.36B | $814.6M | +32.0% |
| SG&A expense | $496.9M | $533.9M | $37.0M | +7.4% |
| Interest expense | $230.0M | $241.5M | $11.5M | +5.0% |
XBRL disclosure changes (new vs dropped concepts)
| Type | Concepts |
|---|---|
| Added | AccountsPayableFairValueDisclosure, AccruedIncomeTaxesCurrent, AssetsHeldForSaleLongLivedFairValueDisclosure, CashAndCashEquivalentsFairValueDisclosure, DebtInstrumentFairValue, EquityMethodInvestmentsFairValueDisclosure, GainLossOnDispositionOfAssets1, IncreaseDecreaseInAssetRetirementObligations, OtherInventoryNetOfReserves, ProceedsFromPaymentsToMinorityShareholders |
| Removed | AccountsReceivableGross, AccountsReceivableGrossCurrent, AccruedIncomeTaxes, AllocatedShareBasedCompensationExpense, AllowanceForDoubtfulAccountsReceivableCurrent, AmortizationOfIntangibleAssets, AssetRetirementObligationPeriodIncreaseDecrease, BusinessAcquisitionPurchasePriceAllocationGoodwillExpectedTaxDeductibleAmount, CollateralAlreadyPostedAggregateFairValue, CurrentFederalTaxExpenseBenefit |
Risk language in filing text (EDGAR full-text search)
| Term | Severity | Recent | Prior | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Material weakness in internal controls | high | 5 | 2 | Ongoing |
| Restatement of financial statements | high | 2 | 1 | Ongoing |
| Impairment charge | medium | 5 | 1 | Ongoing |
| Restructuring | medium | 5 | 6 | Ongoing |
| Off-balance sheet arrangements | medium | 5 | 8 | Ongoing |
| Related party transactions | low | 5 | 8 | Ongoing |
Filing signal breakdown
Red flags: 5
Positive: 2
Watch: 0
Red flags
Positive
Watch
Free previewFundamentals Analyst
Fundamentals
Fundamentals Analyst
score -25Deteriorating
80% conf
Revenue grew +8.4% YoY to $12.05B. Net margin at 4.49% (contracting ▼). Return on equity 4.47%, ROA 2.21%, ROIC 6.80%.
- Revenue grew +8.4% YoY to $12.05B.
- Net margin at 4.49% (contracting ▼).
- Return on equity 4.47%, ROA 2.21%, ROIC 6.80%.
- Gross margin 15.78%, operating margin 6.82%.
- Free cash flow margin -4.44% (-$534.6M).
- Net income up ▲ +209.1% YoY.
- Debt/equity 0.33, current ratio 1.34, net debt $3.54B.
- Asset turnover 0.49 — capital efficiency.
Revenue (FY)
$12.05B
YoY +8.4%
Net margin
4.49%
▼ 14.25pp
ROE
4.47%
ROA 2.21%
ROIC
6.80%
EPS (diluted)
$1.70
FY2025
Free cash flow
-$534.6M
-4.44% margin
Debt / equity
0.33
Cash $294.0M
Current ratio
1.34
Equity $11.46B
Annual fundamentals — up to 10 years (SEC 10-K, US-GAAP)
| FY | Revenue | Rev YoY | Gross% | Op% | Net% | FCF | ROE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $11.12B | -18.8% | 13.59 | 5.59 | 1.57 | $47.4M | 1.52 |
| 2025 | $12.05B | +8.4% | 15.78 | 6.82 | 4.49 | -$534.6M | 4.47 |
Quarterly revenue trend (last 6 quarters, SEC 10-Q)
| Quarter end | Revenue | YoY | QoQ | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2012 | $2.54B | -15.9% | — | 24.79% |
| Feb 28, 2013 | $2.24B | — | -11.7% | 15.38% |
| Mar 31, 2025 | $2.62B | — | +17.0% | 9.08% |
| Jun 30, 2025 | $3.01B | — | +14.7% | 13.66% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | $3.00B | +14.4% | -0.3% | -8.59% |
| Jun 30, 2026 | $2.82B | -6.0% | -5.8% | -9.66% |
Sources:SEC EDGAR — Company Facts (XBRL)
+8 more years of history, charts & full breakdown Pro
Pro analysis — preview
— score, signals & key metrics shown; full reasoning lockedValuation
Valuation Analyst
score 0Stable
95% conf
Market cap $8.22B at $25.85 per share. Trailing P/E 15.21, P/S 0.68, P/B 0.72. EV/Operating income ≈ 14.31 (EV $11.76B).
- Market cap $8.22B at $25.85 per share.
Market cap
$8.22B
317.90M shares
P/E (ttm)
15.21
P/S
0.68
P/B
0.72
EV
$11.76B
Intrinsic (DCF)
—
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked
Price & Technicals
Technical Analyst
score 50Improving
85% conf
Price $25.85 — uptrend (above 200-DMA); 1-month momentum positive. RSI(14) 80.64 (overbought).
- Price $25.85 — uptrend (above 200-DMA); 1-month momentum positive.
Price
$25.85
NYQ
RSI(14)
80.64
50-DMA
$22.73
200-DMA
$24.52
Volatility (ann.)
44.91%
52w range
$19.80–$36.99
-30.1% from high
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked
Macro & Rates
Macro Analyst
score 30Improving
80% conf
Risk-on · Supportive. Real GDP growth 1.50% (quarterly, as of Apr 1, 2026). CPI inflation +3.3% YoY. Fed funds rate 3.63%, 10Y Treasury 4.77%.
- Market regime: Risk-on · Supportive.
GDP growth
1.50%
CPI (YoY)
+3.3%
Fed funds
3.63%
10Y yield
4.77%
10Y−2Y
0.41pp
Unemployment
4.10%
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked
Risk Scorecard
Risk Analyst
score -24Deteriorating
83% conf
Composite risk Elevated. Leverage debt/equity 0.33 (low). Liquidity current ratio 1.34 (adequate).
- Composite risk: Elevated.
Risk level
Elevated
Debt / equity
0.33
Current ratio
1.34
Margin stdev
9.05pp
Cash / assets
1.19%
Liab / assets
—
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Macro exposure
Cyclical / growth · High sensitivityMacro regime: Risk-on · Supportive. Mosaic Co. is a cyclical / growth name (high macro sensitivity) — risk appetite favors cyclical/growth names.
Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive
Yield curve
Normal
VIX
14.32
Fed funds
3.63%
CPI YoY
+3.3%
Analytical read
deterministic previewPrice $25.85 — uptrend (above 200-DMA); 1-month momentum positive..
Risk
Elevated
Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive
Macro exposure
Supportive
Descriptive analytics from public filings and macro data — not investment advice.
Peer comparison
Cyclical / growth groupHow MOS stacks up against tracked peers with similar macro sensitivity — by analytical score and macro exposure.
| Company | Score | Macro |
|---|---|---|
| Intuit Inc. INTU | 35 | Supportive |
| CF Industries CF | 34 | Supportive |
| MercadoLibre Inc. MELI | 29 | Supportive |
| Shopify Inc. SHOP | 27 | Supportive |
| Alphabet Inc. GOOGL | 26 | Supportive |
| Newmont Corp. NEM | 24 | Supportive |
| Booking Holdings BKNG | 24 | Supportive |
| Uber Technologies UBER | 24 | Supportive |
| Salesforce Inc. CRM | 23 | Supportive |
| Meta Platforms Inc. META | 23 | Supportive |
| Okta Inc. OKTA | 18 | Supportive |
| Qualcomm Inc. QCOM | 18 | Supportive |
| Roku Inc. ROKU | 17 | Supportive |
| Netflix Inc. NFLX | 17 | Supportive |
| Comcast Corp. CMCSA | 17 | Supportive |
| Microsoft Corp. MSFT | 16 | Supportive |
| T-Mobile US Inc. TMUS | 16 | Supportive |
| Marvell Technology MRVL | 16 | Supportive |
| Workday Inc. WDAY | 15 | Supportive |
| Adobe Inc. ADBE | 14 | Supportive |
| Pinterest Inc. PINS | 14 | Supportive |
| Datadog Inc. DDOG | 14 | Supportive |
| Airbnb Inc. ABNB | 12 | Supportive |
| Dollar General Corp. DG | 12 | Supportive |
| NVIDIA Corp. NVDA | 11 | Supportive |
| Energy Transfer ET | 8 | Supportive |
| ConocoPhillips COP | 8 | Supportive |
| Oracle Corp. ORCL | 8 | Supportive |
| Spotify Technology SPOT | 8 | Supportive |
| Lam Research Corp. LRCX | 8 | Supportive |
| Cloudflare Inc. NET | 8 | Supportive |
| Delta Air Lines DAL | 7 | Supportive |
| Valero Energy VLO | 7 | Supportive |
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| Eaton Corp. ETN | 4 | Supportive |
| Advanced Micro Devices AMD | 4 | Supportive |
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| Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG | 3 | Supportive |
| GE Aerospace GE | 3 | Supportive |
| Snowflake Inc. SNOW | 2 | Supportive |
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