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Macro Dashboard
FRED · Federal Reserve Economic DataA live, form-aware read on the US economy. Each series is interpreted with the right change measure — YoY for indices, bp/pp moves for rates, percentile for VIX, the Sahm rule for unemployment — then synthesised into four composite gauges.
Macro regimeRisk-on · Supportive
Growth & Recession Gauge:HealthyInflation Regime:ModeratingFinancial Conditions:NeutralPolicy Stance:Near neutral
Risk-on · Supportive — curve normally sloped, moderating inflation, near neutral policy, neutral financial conditions. No recession signals currently active.
Composite gauges
Growth & Recession Gauge
Healthy.
GDP growth
1.50%
10Y-2Y curve
0.41pp
Sahm rule
0.03pp
Payrolls MoM
162
Inflation Regime
Moderating. Headline CPI +3.3% YoY, core +2.5% YoY; 5Y breakeven 2.37%.
Headline CPI YoY
+3.3%
Core CPI YoY
+2.5%
5Y breakeven
2.37%
Fed target
2.0%
Financial Conditions
Neutral. VIX 14.32, BAA-10Y credit spread 1.57pp.
VIX
14.32
Credit spread
1.57pp
10Y yield
4.77%
Unemployment
4.10%
Policy Stance
Near neutral. Fed funds 3.63%, real rate 1.16%.
Fed funds
3.63%
Real rate
1.16%
10Y-2Y
0.41pp
vs neutral
2.5%
Regime screener
How each sector tends to fare under the current Risk-on · Supportive regime — favorable, neutral, or a headwind.
Favorable8
- Technology / GrowthCyclical / growth · High →
- SemiconductorsCyclical / growth · High →
- Consumer DiscretionaryCyclical / growth · High →
- AutomotiveCyclical / growth · High →
- CommunicationCyclical / growth · High →
- EnergyCyclical / growth · High →
- IndustrialsCyclical / growth · High →
- MaterialsCyclical / growth · High →
Neutral5
Unfavorable0
- No sectors in this band.
Regime stock picks
Tracked companies grouped by how the current Risk-on · Supportive regime sits with them — pair macro favorability with each stock and its analytical score.
Macro-favored103
Apple Inc.
AAPL · Technology
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT · Technology
Adobe Inc.
ADBE · Technology
Salesforce Inc.
CRM · Technology
Oracle Corp.
ORCL · Technology
Cisco Systems Inc.
CSCO · Technology
IBM Corp.
IBM · Technology
ServiceNow Inc.
NOW · Technology
Intuit Inc.
INTU · Technology
Palo Alto Networks
PANW · Technology
CrowdStrike Holdings
CRWD · Technology
NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA · Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices
AMD · Semiconductors
Intel Corp.
INTC · Semiconductors
Broadcom Inc.
AVGO · Semiconductors
Texas Instruments
TXN · Semiconductors
Qualcomm Inc.
QCOM · Semiconductors
Micron Technology
MU · Semiconductors
ASML Holding NV
ASML · Semiconductors
Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL · Communication
Meta Platforms Inc.
META · Communication
Netflix Inc.
NFLX · Communication
Walt Disney Co.
DIS · Communication
T-Mobile US Inc.
TMUS · Communication
Verizon Communications
VZ · Communication
Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN · Consumer Discretionary
Tesla Inc.
TSLA · Automotive
Nike Inc.
NKE · Consumer Discretionary
Home Depot Inc.
HD · Consumer Discretionary
McDonald's Corp.
MCD · Consumer Discretionary
Starbucks Corp.
SBUX · Consumer Discretionary
Uber Technologies
UBER · Consumer Discretionary
Booking Holdings
BKNG · Consumer Discretionary
Airbnb Inc.
ABNB · Consumer Discretionary
Exxon Mobil Corp.
XOM · Energy
Chevron Corp.
CVX · Energy
ConocoPhillips
COP · Energy
Schlumberger N.V.
SLB · Energy
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT · Industrials
Boeing Co.
BA · Industrials
GE Aerospace
GE · Industrials
United Parcel Service
UPS · Industrials
RTX Corp.
RTX · Industrials
Lockheed Martin
LMT · Industrials
Honeywell International
HON · Industrials
Deere & Co.
DE · Industrials
Linde plc
LIN · Materials
Sherwin-Williams
SHW · Materials
Freeport-McMoRan
FCX · Materials
Occidental Petroleum
OXY · Energy
Phillips 66
PSX · Energy
Marathon Petroleum
MPC · Energy
Valero Energy
VLO · Energy
EOG Resources
EOG · Energy
Air Products & Chemicals
APD · Materials
Newmont Corp.
NEM · Materials
Nucor Corp.
NUE · Materials
3M Co.
MMM · Industrials
Union Pacific Corp.
UNP · Industrials
CSX Corp.
CSX · Industrials
General Motors Co.
GM · Automotive
MercadoLibre Inc.
MELI · Consumer Discretionary
Shopify Inc.
SHOP · Technology
Snowflake Inc.
SNOW · Technology
Cloudflare Inc.
NET · Technology
Datadog Inc.
DDOG · Technology
Zscaler Inc.
ZS · Technology
Okta Inc.
OKTA · Technology
Workday Inc.
WDAY · Technology
Autodesk Inc.
ADSK · Technology
Marvell Technology
MRVL · Semiconductors
ON Semiconductor Corp.
ON · Semiconductors
Microchip Technology
MCHP · Semiconductors
Lam Research Corp.
LRCX · Semiconductors
Applied Materials Inc.
AMAT · Semiconductors
Comcast Corp.
CMCSA · Communication
Warner Bros Discovery
WBD · Communication
Spotify Technology
SPOT · Communication
Roku Inc.
ROKU · Communication
Pinterest Inc.
PINS · Communication
Alibaba Group
BABA · Consumer Discretionary
Lowe's Cos.
LOW · Consumer Discretionary
TJX Cos.
TJX · Consumer Discretionary
Dollar General Corp.
DG · Consumer Discretionary
Ulta Beauty Inc.
ULTA · Consumer Discretionary
Yum Brands Inc.
YUM · Consumer Discretionary
Chipotle Mexican Grill
CMG · Consumer Discretionary
Marriott International
MAR · Consumer Discretionary
Royal Caribbean Group
RCL · Consumer Discretionary
Hess Corp.
HES · Energy
Kinder Morgan
KMI · Energy
Energy Transfer
ET · Energy
Devon Energy
DVN · Energy
Albemarle Corp.
ALB · Materials
CF Industries
CF · Materials
Mosaic Co.
MOS · Materials
Dow Inc.
DOW · Materials
Norfolk Southern
NSC · Industrials
Old Dominion Freight
ODFL · Industrials
Delta Air Lines
DAL · Industrials
United Airlines Holdings
UAL · Industrials
Eaton Corp.
ETN · Industrials
General Dynamics
GD · Industrials
Macro-neutral77
Walmart Inc.
WMT · Consumer Staples
Coca-Cola Co.
KO · Consumer Staples
Procter & Gamble
PG · Consumer Staples
Costco Wholesale
COST · Consumer Staples
PepsiCo Inc.
PEP · Consumer Staples
Mondelez International
MDLZ · Consumer Staples
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM · Financials
Visa Inc.
V · Financials
Mastercard Inc.
MA · Financials
Bank of America Corp.
BAC · Financials
Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC · Financials
Goldman Sachs Group
GS · Financials
Morgan Stanley
MS · Financials
BlackRock Inc.
BLK · Financials
Citigroup Inc.
C · Financials
Charles Schwab Corp.
SCHW · Financials
American Express Co.
AXP · Financials
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · Healthcare
UnitedHealth Group
UNH · Healthcare
Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY · Healthcare
AbbVie Inc.
ABBV · Healthcare
Pfizer Inc.
PFE · Healthcare
Merck & Co.
MRK · Healthcare
Abbott Laboratories
ABT · Healthcare
Amgen Inc.
AMGN · Healthcare
Bristol-Myers Squibb
BMY · Healthcare
CVS Health Corp.
CVS · Healthcare
Prologis Inc.
PLD · Real Estate
American Tower Corp.
AMT · Real Estate
NextEra Energy
NEE · Utilities
Duke Energy Corp.
DUK · Utilities
Thermo Fisher Scientific
TMO · Healthcare
Danaher Corp.
DHR · Healthcare
Intuitive Surgical Inc.
ISRG · Healthcare
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
VRTX · Healthcare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
REGN · Healthcare
Gilead Sciences
GILD · Healthcare
Zoetis Inc.
ZTS · Healthcare
S&P Global
SPGI · Financials
Moody's Corp.
MCO · Financials
Chubb Ltd.
CB · Financials
U.S. Bancorp
USB · Financials
PNC Financial Services
PNC · Financials
MetLife Inc.
MET · Financials
American International Group
AIG · Financials
Southern Company
SO · Utilities
American Electric Power
AEP · Utilities
Crown Castle Inc.
CCI · Real Estate
Equinix Inc.
EQIX · Real Estate
Public Storage
PSA · Real Estate
Simon Property Group
SPG · Real Estate
Colgate-Palmolive
CL · Consumer Staples
Kimberly-Clark Corp.
KMB · Consumer Staples
Hershey Co.
HSY · Consumer Staples
Sysco Corp.
SYY · Consumer Staples
Kroger Co.
KR · Consumer Staples
Truist Financial
TFC · Financials
Bank of New York Mellon
BK · Financials
Capital One Financial
COF · Financials
Travelers Cos.
TRV · Financials
Allstate Corp.
ALL · Financials
Marsh & McLennan
MMC · Financials
CME Group Inc.
CME · Financials
Moderna Inc.
MRNA · Healthcare
Biogen Inc.
BIIB · Healthcare
DexCom Inc.
DXCM · Healthcare
Illumina Inc.
ILMN · Healthcare
HCA Healthcare
HCA · Healthcare
Cigna Group
CI · Healthcare
Dominion Energy
D · Utilities
Exelon Corp.
EXC · Utilities
Xcel Energy
XEL · Utilities
American Water Works
AWK · Utilities
Realty Income Corp.
O · Real Estate
Digital Realty Trust
DLR · Real Estate
Welltower Inc.
WELL · Real Estate
Equity Residential
EQR · Real Estate
Macro headwind0
No tracked names in this band.
Growth & Activity
· GDP, payrolls, housing, sentimentReal GDP Growth (QoQ, annualized)
Quarterly · % · Apr 1, 2026
1.5%
QoQ -0.60ppMoM -0.60ppQoQ -0.60ppYoY -2.30pp
Positive but soft, decelerating.
Real GDP Growth (QoQ, annualized)
A191RL1Q225SBEA
Real GDP (level)
Quarterly · $ Bil · Apr 1, 2026
24269.6
YoY +2.1%MoM +0.4%QoQ +0.4%YoY +2.1%
Real output expanding briskly YoY.
Real GDP (level)
GDPC1
Housing Starts
Monthly · Thous. · Jul 1, 2026
1239.0
MoM -12.4% · YoY -13.5%MoM -12.4%QoQ -12.4%YoY -13.5%
Housing starts softening MoM.
Housing Starts
HOUST
Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan)
Monthly · Index · Jul 1, 2026
55.2
YoY -10.5%MoM +11.5%QoQ +10.8%YoY -10.5%
Consumer sentiment deteriorating YoY.
Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan)
UMCSENT
Inflation
· CPI, PCE, breakevensConsumer Price Index (CPI, Urban)
Monthly · Index 1982-84=100 · Jul 1, 2026
332.8
YoY +3.3%MoM +0.1%QoQ +0.1%YoY +3.3%
Headline inflation above the 2% target; trend rising.
Consumer Price Index (CPI, Urban)
CPIAUCSL
Core CPI (less food & energy)
Monthly · Index 1982-84=100 · Jul 1, 2026
336.8
YoY +2.5%MoM +0.2%QoQ +0.4%YoY +2.5%
Core inflation above the 2% target.
Core CPI (less food & energy)
CPILFESL
PCE Price Index
Monthly · Index 2017=100 · Jul 1, 2026
131.7
YoY +3.7%MoM +0.2%QoQ +0.5%YoY +3.7%
Headline inflation above the 2% target; trend rising.
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
Core PCE Price Index
Monthly · Index 2017=100 · Jul 1, 2026
130.7
YoY +3.3%MoM +0.2%QoQ +0.8%YoY +3.3%
Core inflation above the 2% target.
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
5Y Breakeven Inflation
Daily · % · Sep 4, 2026
2.4%
1M +0.18ppMoM +0.18ppQoQ -0.11ppYoY —
Markets price ~2.4% inflation over 5Y.
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
Rates & Curve
· Fed funds, Treasuries, spreadsFederal Funds Effective Rate
Monthly · % · Aug 1, 2026
3.6%
1M +0.00ppMoM +0.00ppQoQ +0.00ppYoY -0.70pp
Policy near neutral at 3.6%.
Federal Funds Effective Rate
FEDFUNDS
10-Year Treasury Yield
Daily · % · Sep 3, 2026
4.8%
1M +7bpMoM +0.07ppQoQ +0.28ppYoY —
10Y Treasury yield at 4.77%.
10-Year Treasury Yield
DGS10
2-Year Treasury Yield
Daily · % · Sep 3, 2026
4.3%
1M +9bpMoM +0.09ppQoQ +0.26ppYoY —
2Y Treasury yield at 4.34%.
2-Year Treasury Yield
DGS2
30-Year Treasury Yield
Daily · % · Sep 3, 2026
5.3%
1M +2bpMoM +0.02ppQoQ +0.26ppYoY —
30Y Treasury yield at 5.25%.
30-Year Treasury Yield
DGS30
10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread
Daily · % · Sep 4, 2026
0.4%
1M -0.02ppMoM -0.02ppQoQ -0.01ppYoY —
Curve positively sloped — normal term structure.
10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread
T10Y2Y
BAA minus 10Y Corporate Spread
Daily · % · Sep 3, 2026
1.6%
1M -0.04ppMoM -0.04ppQoQ +0.03ppYoY —
BAA-10Y credit spread at 1.57pp — credit conditions benign.
BAA minus 10Y Corporate Spread
BAA10Y
Moody's AAA Corporate Yield
Daily · % · Sep 3, 2026
5.9%
1M +4bpMoM +0.04ppQoQ +0.41ppYoY —
AAA corporate yield at 5.92%.
Moody's AAA Corporate Yield
DAAA
Labor Market
· Unemployment, claims, payrollsNonfarm Payrolls
Monthly · Thous. · Aug 1, 2026
159075.0
MoM +162 · YoY +0.4%MoM +0.1%QoQ +0.1%YoY +0.4%
Payrolls rising modestly month-over-month.
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly · Thous. · Aug 29, 2026
206000.0
1M +8,000MoM +4.0%QoQ -2.8%YoY -10.0%
Claims at 206,000 (very tight labor).
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
Unemployment Rate
Monthly · % · Aug 1, 2026
4.1%
YoY -0.20ppMoM +0.00ppQoQ -0.20ppYoY -0.20pp
Unemployment 4.1%.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
Markets & Liquidity
· VIX, M2, Fed balance sheetM2 Money Supply
Monthly · $ Bil · Jul 1, 2026
23218.0
YoY +5.4%MoM +0.4%QoQ +2.0%YoY +5.4%
M2 growing modestly.
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Daily · Index · Sep 3, 2026
14.3
3th pct (recent)MoM -9.7%QoQ -10.8%YoY —
Volatility subdued — complacency. 3th percentile of recent history..
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
VIXCLS
Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet)
Weekly · $ Bil · Sep 2, 2026
6737204.0
YoY +2.0%MoM -0.0%QoQ +0.5%YoY +2.0%
Fed balance sheet expanding (QE/easing).
Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet)
WALCL
All series — readings
| Series | Latest | Change | Read | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth (QoQ, annualized) | 1.5% | QoQ -0.60pp | Positive but soft, decelerating. | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Real GDP (level) | 24269.6 | YoY +2.1% | Real output expanding briskly YoY. | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 159075.0 | MoM +162 · YoY +0.4% | Payrolls rising modestly month-over-month. | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 206000.0 | 1M +8,000 | Claims at 206,000 (very tight labor). | Aug 29, 2026 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | YoY -0.20pp | Unemployment 4.1%. | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI, Urban) | 332.8 | YoY +3.3% | Headline inflation above the 2% target; trend rising. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Core CPI (less food & energy) | 336.8 | YoY +2.5% | Core inflation above the 2% target. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| PCE Price Index | 131.7 | YoY +3.7% | Headline inflation above the 2% target; trend rising. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Core PCE Price Index | 130.7 | YoY +3.3% | Core inflation above the 2% target. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| 5Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.4% | 1M +0.18pp | Markets price ~2.4% inflation over 5Y. | Sep 4, 2026 |
| M2 Money Supply | 23218.0 | YoY +5.4% | M2 growing modestly. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Federal Funds Effective Rate | 3.6% | 1M +0.00pp | Policy near neutral at 3.6%. | Aug 1, 2026 |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.8% | 1M +7bp | 10Y Treasury yield at 4.77%. | Sep 3, 2026 |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.3% | 1M +9bp | 2Y Treasury yield at 4.34%. | Sep 3, 2026 |
| 30-Year Treasury Yield | 5.3% | 1M +2bp | 30Y Treasury yield at 5.25%. | Sep 3, 2026 |
| 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread | 0.4% | 1M -0.02pp | Curve positively sloped — normal term structure. | Sep 4, 2026 |
| BAA minus 10Y Corporate Spread | 1.6% | 1M -0.04pp | BAA-10Y credit spread at 1.57pp — credit conditions benign. | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Moody's AAA Corporate Yield | 5.9% | 1M +4bp | AAA corporate yield at 5.92%. | Sep 3, 2026 |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 14.3 | 3th pct (recent) | Volatility subdued — complacency. 3th percentile of recent history.. | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet) | 6737204.0 | YoY +2.0% | Fed balance sheet expanding (QE/easing). | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Housing Starts | 1239.0 | MoM -12.4% · YoY -13.5% | Housing starts softening MoM. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan) | 55.2 | YoY -10.5% | Consumer sentiment deteriorating YoY. | Jul 1, 2026 |