Macro Dashboard
FRED · Federal Reserve Economic DataA live, form-aware read on the US economy. Each series is interpreted with the right change measure — YoY for indices, bp/pp moves for rates, percentile for VIX, the Sahm rule for unemployment — then synthesised into four composite gauges.
Risk-on · Supportive — curve normally sloped, moderating inflation, near neutral policy, neutral financial conditions. No recession signals currently active.
Composite gauges
Growth & Recession Gauge
Healthy.
Inflation Regime
Moderating. Headline CPI +4.2% YoY, core +2.8% YoY; 5Y breakeven 2.24%.
Financial Conditions
Neutral. VIX 16.59, BAA-10Y credit spread 1.54pp.
Policy Stance
Near neutral. Fed funds 3.63%, real rate 0.81%.
Regime screener
How each sector tends to fare under the current Risk-on · Supportive regime — favorable, neutral, or a headwind.
- Technology / GrowthCyclical / growth · High →
- SemiconductorsCyclical / growth · High →
- Consumer DiscretionaryCyclical / growth · High →
- AutomotiveCyclical / growth · High →
- CommunicationCyclical / growth · High →
- EnergyCyclical / growth · High →
- IndustrialsCyclical / growth · High →
- MaterialsCyclical / growth · High →
- No sectors in this band.
Regime stock picks
Tracked companies grouped by how the current Risk-on · Supportive regime sits with them — pair macro favorability with each stock and its rating.
No tracked names in this band.
Growth & Activity
· GDP, payrolls, housing, sentimentAbove-trend growth, accelerating.
Real output expanding briskly YoY.
Housing starts softening MoM.
Consumer sentiment deteriorating YoY.
Inflation
· CPI, PCE, breakevensHeadline inflation well above the 2% target; trend rising.
Core inflation above the 2% target; trend rising.
Headline inflation well above the 2% target; trend rising.
Core inflation above the 2% target; trend rising.
Markets price ~2.2% inflation over 5Y.
Rates & Curve
· Fed funds, Treasuries, spreadsPolicy near neutral at 3.6%.
10Y Treasury yield at 4.48%.
2Y Treasury yield at 4.17%.
30Y Treasury yield at 4.97%.
Curve positively sloped — normal term structure.
BAA-10Y credit spread at 1.54pp — credit conditions benign.
AAA corporate yield at 5.60%.
Labor Market
· Unemployment, claims, payrollsPayrolls rising modestly month-over-month.
Claims at 215,000 (very tight labor).
Unemployment 4.2%.
Markets & Liquidity
· VIX, M2, Fed balance sheetM2 growing modestly.
Volatility subdued — complacency. 26th percentile of recent history..
Fed balance sheet roughly flat.
All series — readings
| Series | Latest | Change | Read | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth (QoQ, annualized) | 2.1% | QoQ +1.60pp | Above-trend growth, accelerating. | Jan 1, 2026 |
| Real GDP (level) | 24180.4 | YoY +2.7% | Real output expanding briskly YoY. | Jan 1, 2026 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 158984.0 | MoM +57 · YoY +0.3% | Payrolls rising modestly month-over-month. | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 215000.0 | 1M +3,000 | Claims at 215,000 (very tight labor). | Jun 27, 2026 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | YoY +0.10pp | Unemployment 4.2%. | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI, Urban) | 334.0 | YoY +4.2% | Headline inflation well above the 2% target; trend rising. | May 1, 2026 |
| Core CPI (less food & energy) | 336.1 | YoY +2.8% | Core inflation above the 2% target; trend rising. | May 1, 2026 |
| PCE Price Index | 131.5 | YoY +4.1% | Headline inflation well above the 2% target; trend rising. | May 1, 2026 |
| Core PCE Price Index | 130.1 | YoY +3.4% | Core inflation above the 2% target; trend rising. | May 1, 2026 |
| 5Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.2% | 1M -0.28pp | Markets price ~2.2% inflation over 5Y. | Jul 2, 2026 |
| M2 Money Supply | 23052.3 | YoY +5.6% | M2 growing modestly. | May 1, 2026 |
| Federal Funds Effective Rate | 3.6% | 1M +0.00pp | Policy near neutral at 3.6%. | Jun 1, 2026 |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.5% | 1M +1bp | 10Y Treasury yield at 4.48%. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.2% | 1M +12bp | 2Y Treasury yield at 4.17%. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| 30-Year Treasury Yield | 5.0% | 1M -2bp | 30Y Treasury yield at 4.97%. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread | 0.3% | 1M -0.06pp | Curve positively sloped — normal term structure. | Jul 2, 2026 |
| BAA minus 10Y Corporate Spread | 1.5% | 1M +0.00pp | BAA-10Y credit spread at 1.54pp — credit conditions benign. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Moody's AAA Corporate Yield | 5.6% | 1M +11bp | AAA corporate yield at 5.60%. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 16.6 | 26th pct (recent) | Volatility subdued — complacency. 26th percentile of recent history.. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet) | 6724564.0 | YoY +0.9% | Fed balance sheet roughly flat. | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Housing Starts | 1177.0 | MoM -15.4% · YoY -8.7% | Housing starts softening MoM. | May 1, 2026 |
| Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan) | 44.8 | YoY -14.2% | Consumer sentiment deteriorating YoY. | May 1, 2026 |