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Royal Caribbean Group

RCLConsumer Discretionary

Generated Sep 5, 2026, 02:28 PM UTC

analytical score -19

RCL (Royal Caribbean Group) analytical snapshot. Revenue grew +8.8% YoY to $17.93B. 5-year revenue CAGR +63.6%; 10y CAGR +8.7%. Net margin at 23.80% (expanding ▲). Market cap $70.93B at $265.19 per share. Trailing P/E 16.99, P/S 3.95, P/B 6.93. EV/Operating income ≈ 15.53 (EV $76.25B). Risk: Elevated. Macro: Risk-on · Supportive. Composite analytical score -19 (data confidence 83%). Descriptive analytics from public filings — not investment advice.

Market cap
$70.93B
267.45M shares
Price
$265.19
NYQ
P/E (ttm)
16.99
Revenue (FY)
$17.93B
YoY +8.8%
Net margin
23.80%
▲ 48.18pp
Free cash flow
$1.24B
6.89% margin
Risk level
Elevated

Free SEC analysis

— computed from SEC filings, free to read
Free previewRegulatory Analyst

Filings & Ownership

Regulatory Analyst
score 30Improving
80% conf

Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 11, 2026. Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Jul 28, 2026. 17 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.

  • Latest annual report (10-K) filed Feb 11, 2026.
  • Latest quarterly report (10-Q) filed Jul 28, 2026.
  • 17 recent 8-K material-event filings in the index.
  • Recent insider Form 4s: 0 buy vs 0 sell transactions.
  • ~10,000+ recent 13F-HR filings reference Royal Caribbean Group; broad institutional reporting.
  • Recent filers include MAPLELANE CAPITAL, LLC, WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP, Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P..
  • 1 recent 13D activist/beneficial-ownership filings — potential catalyst.
Latest 10-K
Feb 11, 2026
Annual report
Latest 10-Q
Jul 28, 2026
8-K (recent)
17
Insider net
0B/0S
13F filers
10k+
Activist 13D
1
Recent 13F institutional filers (SEC EDGAR full-text)
FilerFormFiled
MAPLELANE CAPITAL, LLC13F-HRNov 14, 2023
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP13F-HRDec 1, 2023
Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.13F-HRNov 15, 2021
MAPLELANE CAPITAL, LLC13F-HRMay 15, 2024
MAPLELANE CAPITAL, LLC13F-HRAug 14, 2024
Recent 8-K material events
DateFormDescription
Aug 20, 20268-KFORM 8-K
Aug 7, 20268-KFORM 8-K
Jul 28, 20268-K8-K
Jul 20, 20268-KFORM 8-K
May 28, 20268-K8-K
May 20, 20268-KFORM 8-K
Apr 30, 20268-K8-K
Feb 27, 20268-KFORM 8-K
Free previewSEC Filing Analyst

SEC Filing Deep-Analysis

SEC Filing Analyst
score -72Deteriorating
66% conf

5 risk signal(s), 1 positive signal(s) detected from XBRL filing diff analysis. Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.

  • Free cash flow deteriorating: FCF declined +38.1% YoY (from $2.00B to $1.24B). With OCF at $6.46B and capex at $5.23B, cash generation capacity is weakening — monitor for dividend/buyback sustainability.
  • NEW: Going concern doubt in latest filing: The term "going concern" "substantial doubt" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 5 filing(s).
  • Material weakness in internal controls: The term "material weakness" "internal control" appears in 2 recent filing(s) (vs 2 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
  • NEW: Substantial doubt about ability to continue in latest filing: The term "substantial doubt" "ability to continue" appears in recent 10-K/10-Q filings but was NOT present in the prior 24-month period. This is a new risk disclosure that warrants attention. Found in 5 filing(s).
  • Restatement of financial statements: The term "restatement of" "previously issued" appears in 1 recent filing(s) (vs 1 in the prior period). This risk language is ongoing.
  • Operating cash flow exceeds net income: OCF is 1.51x net income, indicating high earnings quality — cash conversion is strong and accruals are not inflating reported profits.
  • Endogenous analysis: Free cash flow declined despite stable or rising capex, indicating the cash burn is operational rather than investment-driven. This is a structural concern — cost reduction or asset sales may be needed to restore FCF.
  • Endogenous analysis: The combination of explicit "going concern" language in the filing with deteriorating cash flow or rising leverage is a severe warning signal — the company's own auditors have flagged doubt about the ability to continue as a going concern.
  • 3 new XBRL disclosure(s) in latest filing — expanding reporting scope.
  • 20 disclosure(s) dropped from prior year — reduced reporting granularity.
  • 2 new risk-language term(s) detected in filing text: Going concern doubt, Substantial doubt about ability to continue.
  • Ongoing high-severity risk language: Material weakness in internal controls, Restatement of financial statements.
Revenue
$17.93B
+8.8% YoY
Operating income
$4.91B
+19.6% YoY
Net income
$4.27B
+48.3% YoY
Operating cash flow
$6.46B
+22.8% YoY
Capex
$5.23B
+60.0% YoY
Total assets
$41.62B
+12.3% YoY
Total liabilities
$31.37B
+7.0% YoY
Long-term debt
$8.50B
-7.2% YoY
Filing quality score
76/100
3 new disclosures
SEC XBRL metric changes (latest annual vs prior)
MetricPrior yearLatest yearChange% Change
Revenue$16.48B$17.93B$1.45B+8.8%
Operating income$4.11B$4.91B$804.0M+19.6%
Net income$2.88B$4.27B$1.39B+48.3%
Operating cash flow$5.26B$6.46B$1.20B+22.8%
Capex$3.27B$5.23B$1.96B+60.0%
Total assets$37.07B$41.62B$4.55B+12.3%
Total liabilities$29.34B$31.37B$2.04B+7.0%
Long-term debt$9.15B$8.50B$-654.3M-7.2%
Cash & equivalents$388.0M$825.0M$437.0M+112.6%
Stockholders equity$7.56B$10.04B$2.47B+32.7%
Inventory$265.0M$264.0M$-1.0M-0.4%
SG&A expense$2.13B$2.22B$98.0M+4.6%
Interest expense$1.36B$1.40B$37.8M+2.8%
XBRL disclosure changes (new vs dropped concepts)
TypeConcepts
AddedPaymentsRelatedToTaxWithholdingForShareBasedCompensation, StockRepurchaseProgramRemainingAuthorizedRepurchaseAmount1, TreasuryStockSharesAcquired
RemovedAccumulatedDepreciationDepletionAndAmortizationPropertyPlantAndEquipment, AdvertisingExpense, AllocatedShareBasedCompensationExpense, CommonStockDividendsPerShareCashPaid, CurrentIncomeTaxExpenseBenefit, DeferredIncomeTaxExpenseBenefit, DeferredIncomeTaxLiabilities, DeferredTaxAssetsGross, DeferredTaxAssetsOperatingLossCarryforwards, DeferredTaxAssetsOperatingLossCarryforwardsSubjectToExpiration
Risk language in filing text (EDGAR full-text search)
TermSeverityRecentPriorStatus
Going concern doubthigh50NEW
Material weakness in internal controlshigh22Ongoing
Substantial doubt about ability to continuehigh50NEW
Restatement of financial statementshigh11Ongoing
Impairment chargemedium56Ongoing
Restructuringmedium518Ongoing
Off-balance sheet arrangementsmedium58Ongoing
Related party transactionslow51Ongoing
Filing signal breakdown
Red flags: 5
Positive: 1
Watch: 0
Red flags
Positive
Watch
Free previewFundamentals Analyst

Fundamentals

Fundamentals Analyst
score 40Improving
80% conf

Revenue grew +8.8% YoY to $17.93B. 5-year revenue CAGR +63.6%; 10y CAGR +8.7%. Net margin at 23.80% (expanding ▲).

  • Revenue grew +8.8% YoY to $17.93B.
  • 5-year revenue CAGR +63.6%; 10y CAGR +8.7%.
  • Net margin at 23.80% (expanding ▲).
  • Return on equity 42.52%, ROA 10.25%, ROIC 48.92%.
  • Gross margin 0.00%, operating margin 27.38%.
  • Free cash flow margin 6.89% ($1.24B).
  • Net income up ▲ +48.3% YoY.
  • Debt/equity 0.61, current ratio 0.21, net debt $5.33B.
  • Asset turnover 0.40 — capital efficiency.
Revenue (FY)
$17.93B
YoY +8.8%
Net margin
23.80%
▲ 48.18pp
ROE
42.52%
ROA 10.25%
ROIC
48.92%
EPS (diluted)
$15.61
FY2025
Free cash flow
$1.24B
6.89% margin
Debt / equity
0.61
Cash $875.0M
Current ratio
0.21
Equity $10.24B
Annual fundamentals — up to 10 years (SEC 10-K, US-GAAP)
FYRevenueRev YoYGross%Op%Net%FCFROE%
2024$16.48B+18.6%0.0024.9117.45$2.00B38.04
2025$17.93B+8.8%0.0027.3823.80$1.24B42.52
Quarterly revenue trend (last 6 quarters, SEC 10-Q)
Quarter endRevenueYoYQoQNet margin
Jun 30, 2016$2.11B+2.3%10.92%
Sep 30, 2016$2.56B+1.6%+21.8%27.04%
Mar 31, 2017$2.01B+4.7%-21.7%10.69%
Jun 30, 2017$2.20B+4.3%+9.3%16.83%
Sep 30, 2017$2.57B+0.2%+17.0%29.30%
Mar 31, 2018$2.03B+1.0%-21.1%10.78%
+8 more years of history, charts & full breakdown Pro

Pro analysis — preview

— score, signals & key metrics shown; full reasoning locked

Valuation

Valuation Analyst
score -50Deteriorating
95% conf

Market cap $70.93B at $265.19 per share. Trailing P/E 16.99, P/S 3.95, P/B 6.93. EV/Operating income ≈ 15.53 (EV $76.25B).

  • Market cap $70.93B at $265.19 per share.
Market cap
$70.93B
267.45M shares
P/E (ttm)
16.99
P/S
3.95
P/B
6.93
EV
$76.25B
Intrinsic (DCF)
$74.77
-71.8% vs price
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked

Price & Technicals

Technical Analyst
score -60Deteriorating
85% conf

Price $265.19 — downtrend (below 200-DMA); 1-month momentum negative. RSI(14) 12.25 (oversold).

  • Price $265.19 — downtrend (below 200-DMA); 1-month momentum negative.
Price
$265.19
NYQ
RSI(14)
12.25
50-DMA
$297.30
200-DMA
$287.85
Volatility (ann.)
46.25%
52w range
$232.10–$360.09
-26.4% from high
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked

Macro & Rates

Macro Analyst
score 30Improving
80% conf

Risk-on · Supportive. Real GDP growth 1.50% (quarterly, as of Apr 1, 2026). CPI inflation +3.3% YoY. Fed funds rate 3.63%, 10Y Treasury 4.77%.

  • Market regime: Risk-on · Supportive.
GDP growth
1.50%
CPI (YoY)
+3.3%
Fed funds
3.63%
10Y yield
4.77%
10Y−2Y
0.41pp
Unemployment
4.10%
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked

Risk Scorecard

Risk Analyst
score -30Deteriorating
90% conf

Composite risk Elevated. Leverage debt/equity 0.61 (moderate). Liquidity current ratio 0.21 (stretched).

  • Composite risk: Elevated.
Risk level
Elevated
Debt / equity
0.61
Current ratio
0.21
Margin stdev
97.60pp
Cash / assets
1.96%
Liab / assets
76.57%
ProFull breakdown & reasoning locked

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Macro exposure

Cyclical / growth · High sensitivity
Supportive

Macro regime: Risk-on · Supportive. Royal Caribbean Group is a cyclical / growth name (high macro sensitivity) — risk appetite favors cyclical/growth names.

Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive
Yield curve
Normal
VIX
14.32
Fed funds
3.63%
CPI YoY
+3.3%

Analytical read

deterministic preview

Revenue grew **+8.8%** YoY to $17.93B..

Risk
Elevated
Macro regime
Risk-on · Supportive
Macro exposure
Supportive
Descriptive analytics from public filings and macro data — not investment advice.

Peer comparison

Cyclical / growth group

How RCL stacks up against tracked peers with similar macro sensitivity — by analytical score and macro exposure.

CompanyScoreMacro
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